A closer look at the recently published NASEM study and the accompanying press blitz.
Some Context
Alcohol has been consumed by humans medicinally, spiritually, and recreationally for many thousands of years. We have come to better understand its effects on the body and mind in recent years. Everyone can agree that alcohol is not a health food, but that does not preclude it from being thoughtfully included in an otherwise healthy lifestyle, much like cured meat or sun exposure.
Recent Developments
In 2023, the World Health Organization released a report In the Lancet stating there is “no safe amount” of alcohol consumption. This report has been questioned in its methodology, funding, and results, even within later reports in the Lancet itself, and has ties to questionable neo-prohibitionist groups such as Movendi International.
The Latest Report
The most recent report generating a press frenzy was requested of NASEM by Congress to help set alcohol policy in the US moving forward. The articles we have seen covering this report focus on the increased breast cancer incidence in moderate drinkers. But the results of the study are much broader than that, including lower instances of all-cause mortality and all heart disease related issues.
Below is a breakdown of the report summaries.
Green = Lower Risk
Red = Higher Risk
Darker Shading Indicates Greater Certainty
Doing the Math
In the US, the NCI estimated around 2 million cancer cases in 2024. Of those, 466,320 were due to the two cancer types connected in the NASEM study. Current estimates put the 21+ US population at about 242 million, meaning there is approximately a 0.19% chance of developing one of these alcohol-related cancers in the drinking-age population.
The AACR estimates that, of the 40% of cancer cases with modifiable risk factors, 5.4% can be attributed to alcohol use of any volume. 5.4% of 0.19% is 0.01%.
According to the NASEM study, then, 0.01% is the increase in risk factor for associated cancers from any alcohol use.
Even if the results aren’t as damning as they’re being presented, any increased incidence of disease should be examined. What is not completely clear is exactly how much of an increase in cancer rates is attributable sprcifically to alcohol consumption. Additionally, Headlines have focused on increased cancer risks with very little mention of the incidence of other types of disease potentially being reduced.
For example, Heart Disease and Stroke accounted for 866,273 fatalities in the US in 2022, and Cancer accounted for 608,371. Thus, Americans are 42.4% more likely to die from Heart Disease or Stroke than Cancer. According to this report, then, wouldn’t decreasing the risk of a more likely outcome by 2 to 4 times greater a percentage be something worth reporting on?
Conclusion
Any increase in mortality due to drinking should indeed be studied; an informed consumer is an empowered consumer.
We would also hope that the press, in this era where clickbait seems the only way for them to survive, is actually painting a clear picture of the risks as we know them currently and not leaning on alarmism.
Drinking should always be done with mindfulness and moderation, and we encourage an open dialog and additional research to help us all make decisions on how to best and most safely continue to incorporate it in our lives.